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deaneWe had a Federal election on Monday. I managed to get back in time to vote, and my candidate won our riding, but the Conservatives got a majority, which was what I most wanted to avoid. However, there are some positive aspects to the result.
Since I have a few non-Canadian readers who might not be familiar with the Canadian political landscape, I've prepared a quick overview. For those of you who already know your BQs from your Reformers, you can use the table of contents below to skip over the history lesson:
As the party of the center the Liberals were thought of as the "natural ruling party" and generally formed the government, occasionally being replaced by the Conservatives whenever the stench of scandal got to be too much for the voters1. On rare occasions voters would be sufficiently disgusted with both the main parties as to give neither a majority, at which point the NDP would get a taste of power as the junior partner in a coalition.
This comfortable arrangement was shattered when a significant chunk of the Liberal Party's members from Quebec split off to form the Bloc Quebecois (BQ), whose goal was, ostensibly, to have Quebec separate from the rest of Canada. With the loss of its base in Quebec the Liberals were no longer strong enough to win majorities in elections and the PCs became the the "natural ruling party".
As a fiscally conservative, socially liberal voter, the PCs were the perfect party for me. Sure, they tended to favour business interests over citizens', but nowhere near as much so as the US Republicans, and it's not like the other parties were filled with saints either. So the change in the balance of power suited me.
Then along came Brian Mulroney. He turned the PC party more toward business and completely undermined its tradition of fiscal conservatism by running up huge deficits and debts. In reaction to this the Reform Party (later renamed the Alliance) was formed in Alberta, a mix of disgusted fiscal conservatives, uptight religious conservatives, angry bigots, gun lovers and repressed homophobes, not unlike the Tea Party in the US. They split the vote on the right which destroyed the PCs. I think the PCs were down to just two seats in Parliament when they finally gave in to the inevitable and merged with the Alliance to form the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC). Note that "Progressive" was no longer part of their name.
Seeing an opportunity, the Liberals took up the banner of fiscal conservatism, scooping up the more moderate conservative voters, like myself, who didn't want to be associated the neanderthals in the CPC. The Liberals ruled the roost for over a decade, putting Canada's finances in such good shape that we weathered the financial crisis with relatively little pain. But then Paul Martin took over as head of the party and began to turn back the fiscal clock, pushing ever more voters into the arms of the Conservatives until they (the Liberals) were back to being unable to win elections.
Canada is ruled by the Conservatives, a group whose core supporters are tax-hating bigots and religious conservatives, much like the American Republican Party. Stephen Harper, the leader of the party, has little time for or understanding of, democratic ideals and institutions1. He cares only about power for himself and doesn't even like to share it with the rest of his party. If Harper and the Conservatives are this bad when they're constrained by minority government, think how bad they'll be if they have a majority. This is not a man or a party that I can vote for.
The Liberal party doesn't seem to have any platform or policies beyond getting rid of Harper. While I agree with the sentiment I expect a bit more than that from a party which wants to rule the country. The leader of the party is Michael Ignatieff, a human weather vane who doesn't seem to hold any principle dear enough that it won't change as soon he hits a bad news cycle. If I hold my nose I might be able to vote for the Liberals, but not Ignatieff.
The Bloc Quebecois is still alive and kicking and sucking votes away from the Liberals. Aside from Quebec separatism, about which they seem to talk a lot but never actually do anything, they actually have a fairly decent platform. I'd be tempted to vote for them if I could, but I can't as they only run candidates in Quebec.
The NDP has been working hard to distance itself from its free-spending roots. Alas, its core supporters like all that fiscal profligacy so they're in a bit of a bind. They are led by Jack Layton who is a bit of a flake and who, as a city councillor in Toronto, showed an amazing ability to do whatever was best for Jack Layton. I wouldn't want the NDP to govern the country, and I sure as hell wouldn't want Jack Layton as Prime Minister.
So what's a fella to do? Given my utter disgust with Harper's anti-democratic tendencies my primary goal for the past couple of elections has been to avoid giving him a majority where he might do even greater harm to the country's institutions than he already has. Since my riding has a strong NDP base I've been voting NDP recently simply to keep the Conservatives from getting a majority. It's not like there's any real chance of the NDP winning power.
The NDP's sudden surge in popularity frightened the Liberal Party's more conservative voters who reluctantly switched their votes to the Conservatives, simply to ensure that the NDP didn't win power. As a result the Conservatives won a majority of seats (54%) and the Liberals were decimated (11%).
Second, the Bloc Quebecois was decimated. They only won four seats. While the voters of Quebec have a right to self-determination, even including separation from Canada if enough of them can agree on how to do it, the BQ was not the right vehicle for expressing it. Regionalism is a bad way to run federal government, so I'm glad to see what I hope is the death of the BQ and the return of Quebec to national politics.
Third, the Liberals were handed a sufficiently crushing defeat that they will almost certainly eject Michael Ignatieff and start looking for a better leader. This is my near-term hope, that the Liberals will find some real leadership, develop some real policies and become a party worthy of my vote once more. The only fear here is that their defeat was so staggering that the party may not recover from it. That would be bad for Canada.
Fourth, the NDP showed that they are a force to be reckoned with. No longer will people (like me) be able to use the party simply as a protest vote, secure in the knowledge that they would never actually win power, because this election showed that they could, just possibly, win power. Perhaps this means that voters will think a bit more carefully about their votes in the future. Yeah, I know, I'm probably hoping for too much on that one.
Fifth, to win their majority the Conservatives had to pick up a lot of seats in places outside of their red-necked hinterland. Although they still remain a more regional party than I'd like (30% of their seats come from the prairie provinces, which host only 17% of the population) the influx of votes and party members from more cosmopolitan places like Toronto and Vancouver should, hopefully, moderate the party's social conservatism. I saw a number of non-caucasian Conservatives get elected Monday night. It's hard to see how the party can keep that up and still pander to its racist core. Something's got to give and hopefully it will be the bigots. This is my long-term hope, that eventually the Conservatives will evolve back into a socially liberal, fiscally responsible party that I can vote for again.
Finally, now that Harper and the Conservatives no longer have a minority holding them back, we'll finally get to see their true colours. If I'm right about them, they'll spend the next five years trying to turn Canada into a smaller version of the United States, at which point the voters will kick them out and we can start undoing the harm. If I'm wrong then at least I and the rest of the country will know that our fears were unfounded and can turn our attention to less important matters, such as human rights and global warming.
Since I have a few non-Canadian readers who might not be familiar with the Canadian political landscape, I've prepared a quick overview. For those of you who already know your BQs from your Reformers, you can use the table of contents below to skip over the history lesson:
Background
Once upon a time, we had three major parties: the Progressive Conservatives (PC), who were fiscally conservative, the Liberals, who were fiscally moderate, and the New Democratic Party (NDP), who were fiscally irresponsible. All three parties were socially liberal, to varying degrees, and in American terms would have fit comfortably inside the Democratic Party.As the party of the center the Liberals were thought of as the "natural ruling party" and generally formed the government, occasionally being replaced by the Conservatives whenever the stench of scandal got to be too much for the voters1. On rare occasions voters would be sufficiently disgusted with both the main parties as to give neither a majority, at which point the NDP would get a taste of power as the junior partner in a coalition.
This comfortable arrangement was shattered when a significant chunk of the Liberal Party's members from Quebec split off to form the Bloc Quebecois (BQ), whose goal was, ostensibly, to have Quebec separate from the rest of Canada. With the loss of its base in Quebec the Liberals were no longer strong enough to win majorities in elections and the PCs became the the "natural ruling party".
As a fiscally conservative, socially liberal voter, the PCs were the perfect party for me. Sure, they tended to favour business interests over citizens', but nowhere near as much so as the US Republicans, and it's not like the other parties were filled with saints either. So the change in the balance of power suited me.
Then along came Brian Mulroney. He turned the PC party more toward business and completely undermined its tradition of fiscal conservatism by running up huge deficits and debts. In reaction to this the Reform Party (later renamed the Alliance) was formed in Alberta, a mix of disgusted fiscal conservatives, uptight religious conservatives, angry bigots, gun lovers and repressed homophobes, not unlike the Tea Party in the US. They split the vote on the right which destroyed the PCs. I think the PCs were down to just two seats in Parliament when they finally gave in to the inevitable and merged with the Alliance to form the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC). Note that "Progressive" was no longer part of their name.
Seeing an opportunity, the Liberals took up the banner of fiscal conservatism, scooping up the more moderate conservative voters, like myself, who didn't want to be associated the neanderthals in the CPC. The Liberals ruled the roost for over a decade, putting Canada's finances in such good shape that we weathered the financial crisis with relatively little pain. But then Paul Martin took over as head of the party and began to turn back the fiscal clock, pushing ever more voters into the arms of the Conservatives until they (the Liberals) were back to being unable to win elections.
State Of The Nation Before The Election
Fast forward to 2011 and this is what we have.Canada is ruled by the Conservatives, a group whose core supporters are tax-hating bigots and religious conservatives, much like the American Republican Party. Stephen Harper, the leader of the party, has little time for or understanding of, democratic ideals and institutions1. He cares only about power for himself and doesn't even like to share it with the rest of his party. If Harper and the Conservatives are this bad when they're constrained by minority government, think how bad they'll be if they have a majority. This is not a man or a party that I can vote for.
The Liberal party doesn't seem to have any platform or policies beyond getting rid of Harper. While I agree with the sentiment I expect a bit more than that from a party which wants to rule the country. The leader of the party is Michael Ignatieff, a human weather vane who doesn't seem to hold any principle dear enough that it won't change as soon he hits a bad news cycle. If I hold my nose I might be able to vote for the Liberals, but not Ignatieff.
The Bloc Quebecois is still alive and kicking and sucking votes away from the Liberals. Aside from Quebec separatism, about which they seem to talk a lot but never actually do anything, they actually have a fairly decent platform. I'd be tempted to vote for them if I could, but I can't as they only run candidates in Quebec.
The NDP has been working hard to distance itself from its free-spending roots. Alas, its core supporters like all that fiscal profligacy so they're in a bit of a bind. They are led by Jack Layton who is a bit of a flake and who, as a city councillor in Toronto, showed an amazing ability to do whatever was best for Jack Layton. I wouldn't want the NDP to govern the country, and I sure as hell wouldn't want Jack Layton as Prime Minister.
So what's a fella to do? Given my utter disgust with Harper's anti-democratic tendencies my primary goal for the past couple of elections has been to avoid giving him a majority where he might do even greater harm to the country's institutions than he already has. Since my riding has a strong NDP base I've been voting NDP recently simply to keep the Conservatives from getting a majority. It's not like there's any real chance of the NDP winning power.
Outcome Of The Election
The NDP massively broadened their support by appealing to separatists in Quebec in the final weeks of the campaign. Quebec voters disenchanted with the Bloc Quebecois' inability to achieve any of its aims flocked to the NDP, giving them their best result ever, with 33% of the seats in Parliament. The Bloc, in turn, was reduced to a mere four seats (1.3%).The NDP's sudden surge in popularity frightened the Liberal Party's more conservative voters who reluctantly switched their votes to the Conservatives, simply to ensure that the NDP didn't win power. As a result the Conservatives won a majority of seats (54%) and the Liberals were decimated (11%).
Silver Linings
First off, Elizabeth May, leader of the Green Party, became that party's first member to win a seat in the Canadian Parliament. I wouldn't want the Green Party running the country but their concerns are important ones and given the level of support they have across the country they deserve to be represented in the legislature. I'm quite pleased with this result.Second, the Bloc Quebecois was decimated. They only won four seats. While the voters of Quebec have a right to self-determination, even including separation from Canada if enough of them can agree on how to do it, the BQ was not the right vehicle for expressing it. Regionalism is a bad way to run federal government, so I'm glad to see what I hope is the death of the BQ and the return of Quebec to national politics.
Third, the Liberals were handed a sufficiently crushing defeat that they will almost certainly eject Michael Ignatieff and start looking for a better leader. This is my near-term hope, that the Liberals will find some real leadership, develop some real policies and become a party worthy of my vote once more. The only fear here is that their defeat was so staggering that the party may not recover from it. That would be bad for Canada.
Fourth, the NDP showed that they are a force to be reckoned with. No longer will people (like me) be able to use the party simply as a protest vote, secure in the knowledge that they would never actually win power, because this election showed that they could, just possibly, win power. Perhaps this means that voters will think a bit more carefully about their votes in the future. Yeah, I know, I'm probably hoping for too much on that one.
Fifth, to win their majority the Conservatives had to pick up a lot of seats in places outside of their red-necked hinterland. Although they still remain a more regional party than I'd like (30% of their seats come from the prairie provinces, which host only 17% of the population) the influx of votes and party members from more cosmopolitan places like Toronto and Vancouver should, hopefully, moderate the party's social conservatism. I saw a number of non-caucasian Conservatives get elected Monday night. It's hard to see how the party can keep that up and still pander to its racist core. Something's got to give and hopefully it will be the bigots. This is my long-term hope, that eventually the Conservatives will evolve back into a socially liberal, fiscally responsible party that I can vote for again.
Finally, now that Harper and the Conservatives no longer have a minority holding them back, we'll finally get to see their true colours. If I'm right about them, they'll spend the next five years trying to turn Canada into a smaller version of the United States, at which point the voters will kick them out and we can start undoing the harm. If I'm wrong then at least I and the rest of the country will know that our fears were unfounded and can turn our attention to less important matters, such as human rights and global warming.
1 Because it was recognized as being fiscally irresponsible, the NDP was never allowed to win more than about 13% of the seats in Parliament. However, the NDP do have a habit of coming up with some very good, remarkably popular ideas, such as single-payer health care, which the other two parties then co-opt for themselves. So despite its generally poor showing in elections the NDP has had a significant impact on Canadian politics and policy.
2 During a debate, while talking about a plan on the part of the Liberals and the NDP to vote together to defeat a Conservative bill, Harper called it "undemocratic". Given that Harper's party represented less than 40% of the voters at the time, and the Liberals and NDP combined represented more than 50% of the voters, the plan was the very ideal of democracy. But Harper's definition of "undemocratic" is anything which gets in the way of him doing what he wants.
2 During a debate, while talking about a plan on the part of the Liberals and the NDP to vote together to defeat a Conservative bill, Harper called it "undemocratic". Given that Harper's party represented less than 40% of the voters at the time, and the Liberals and NDP combined represented more than 50% of the voters, the plan was the very ideal of democracy. But Harper's definition of "undemocratic" is anything which gets in the way of him doing what he wants.
